International Tourist Numbers Down 65% in First Half of 2020, UNWTO Reports

• All Regions
• 15 Sep 2020

International tourist arrivals plunged 93% in June when compared to 2019, with the latest data from the World Tourism Organization showing the severe impact COVID-19 has had on the sector. According to the new issue of the World Tourism Barometer from the United Nations specialized agency, international tourist arrivals dropped by 65% during the first half of the year. This represents an unprecedented decrease, as countries around the world closed their borders and introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic.

Over recent weeks, a growing number of destinations have started to open up again to international tourists. UNWTO reports that, as of early September, 53% of destinations had eased travel restrictions. Nevertheless, many governments remain cautious, and this latest report shows that the lockdowns introduced during the first half of the year have had a massive impact on international tourism. The sharp and sudden fall in arrivals has placed millions of jobs and businesses at risk.

Counting the economic cost

According to UNWTO, the massive drop in international travel demand over the period January-June 2020 translates into a loss of 440 million international arrivals and about US$ 460 billion in export revenues from international tourism. This is around five times the loss in international tourism receipts recorded in 2009 amid the global economic and financial crisis.

Safe and responsible international travel is now possible in many parts of the world, and it is imperative that governments work closely with the private sector to get global tourism moving again

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The latest World Tourism Barometer shows the deep impact this pandemic is having on tourism, a sector upon which millions of people depend for their livelihoods. However, safe and responsible international travel is now possible in many parts of the world, and it is imperative that governments work closely with the private sector to get global tourism moving again. Coordinated action is key.”

All global regions hit hard

Despite the gradual reopening of many destinations since the second half of May, the anticipated improvement in international tourism numbers during the peak summer season in the Northern Hemisphere did not materialize. Europe was the second-hardest hit of all global regions, with a 66% decline in tourist arrivals in the first half of 2020. The Americas (-55%), Africa and the Middle East (both -57%) also suffered. However, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to feel the impact of COVID-19 on tourism, was the hardest hit, with a 72% fall in tourists for the six-month period.

At the sub-regional level, North-East Asia (-83%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (-72%) suffered the largest declines. All world regions and sub-regions recorded declines of more than 50% in arrivals in January-June 2020. The contraction of international demand is also reflected in double-digit declines in international tourism expenditure among large markets. Major outbound markets such as the United States and China continue to be at a standstill, though some markets such as France and Germany have shown some improvement in June. 

Looking ahead, it seems likely that reduced travel demand and consumer confidence will continue to impact results for the rest of the year. In May, UNWTO outlined three possible scenarios, pointing to declines of 58% to 78% in international tourist arrivals in 2020. Current trends through August point to a drop in demand closer to 70% (Scenario 2), especially now as some destinations re-introduce restrictions on travel.

The extension of the scenarios to 2021 point to a change in trend next year, based on the assumptions of a gradual and linear lifting of travel restrictions, the availability of a vaccine or treatment and a return of traveller confidence. Nonetheless, despite this, the return to 2019 levels in terms of tourist arrivals would take between 2½ to 4 years.

Related links

• Download the news release
• World Tourism Barometer - Volume 18 • Issue 5
• UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker
• More than 50% of Destinations Have Eased Travel Restrictions
• UNWTO Highlights Potential of Domestic Tourism to Drive Recovery
• UNWTO and COVID-19: Measures to Support Travel and Tourism

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Impact of COVID-19 on Global Tourism Made Clear as UNWTO Counts the Cost of Standstill

• All Regions
• 28 Jul 2020

The enormous toll of COVID-19 on international tourism has now become clear, with World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) data showing the cost up to May was already three times that of the 2009 Global Economic Crisis. As the situation continues to evolve, the United Nations specialized agency has provided the first comprehensive insight into the impact of the pandemic, both in tourist numbers and lost revenues, ahead of the upcoming release of up-to-date information on travel restrictions worldwide.

The latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer shows that the near-complete lockdown imposed in response to the pandemic led to a 98 per cent fall in international tourist numbers in May when compared to 2019. The Barometer also shows a 56% year-on-year drop in tourist arrivals between January and May. This translates into a fall of 300 million tourists and US$320 billion lost in international tourism receipts – more than three times the loss during the Global Economic Crisis of 2009.

Governments in every world region have a dual responsibility: to prioritize public health while also protecting jobs and businesses

Dramatic fall in tourism places millions of livelihoods at risk

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “This latest data makes clear the importance of restarting tourism as soon as it is safe to do so. The dramatic fall in international tourism places many millions of livelihoods at risk, including in developing countries. Governments in every world region have a dual responsibility: to prioritize public health while also protecting jobs and businesses. They also need to maintain the spirit of cooperation and solidarity that has defined our response to this shared challenge and refrain from making unilateral decisions that may undermine the trust and confidence we have been working so hard to build.”

Restart underway but confidence low

At the same time, UNWTO also notes signs of a gradual and cautious change in trend, most notably in the Northern Hemisphere and particularly following the opening of borders across the Schengen Zone of the European Union on 1 July.

While tourism is slowly returning in some destinations, the UNWTO Confidence Index has dropped to record lows, both for the evaluation of the period January-April 2020, and the prospects for May-August. Most members of the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts expect international tourism to recover by the second half of 2021, followed by those who expect a rebound in the first part of next year. 

The group of global experts points to a series of downside risks such as travel restrictions and border shutdowns still in place in most destinations, major outbound markets such as the United States and China being at standstill, safety concerns associated with travel, the resurgence of the virus and risks of new lockdowns or curfews. Furthermore, concerns over a lack of reliable information and a deteriorating economic environment are indicated as factors weighing on consumer confidence.

RELATED LINKS

• Statement from Ibiza: COVID-19 Responses Must Not Undermine Solidarity and Confidence
• UNWTO Recognizes Safe and Responsible Restart of Tourism on the Canary Islands
• UNWTO: Market Intelligence
• Download PDF

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New Data Shows Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism as UNWTO Calls for Responsible Restart of the Sector

• All Regions
• 22 Jun 2020

As tourism slowly restarts in an increasing number of countries, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has released new data measuring the impact of COVID-19 on the sector. UNWTO emphasizes the need for responsibility, safety and security as restrictions on travel are lifted. The Organization also reiterates the need for credible commitment to support tourism as a pillar for recovery.

After several months of unprecedented disruption, the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer reports that the sector is beginning to restart in some areas, most notably in Northern Hemisphere destinations. At the same time, restrictions on travel remain in place in a majority of global destinations, and tourism remains one of the worst affected of all sectors.

Against this backdrop, UNWTO has reiterated its call for governments and international organizations to support tourism, a lifeline for many millions and a backbone of economies.

Restarting tourism in a responsible way a priority

Until tourism’s restart is underway everywhere, UNWTO again calls for strong support for the sector in order to protect jobs and businesses

The gradual lifting of restrictions in some countries, together with the creation of travel corridors, the resumption of some international flights and enhanced safety and hygiene protocols, are among the measures being introduced by governments as they look to restart tourism.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The sudden and massive fall in tourist numbers threatens jobs and economies. It is vital, therefore, that the restart of tourism is made a priority and managed responsibly, protecting the most vulnerable and with health and safety as a the sector’s number one concern. Until tourism’s restart is underway everywhere, UNWTO again calls for strong support for the sector in order to protect jobs and businesses. We therefore welcome the steps undertaken by both the European Union and individual countries including France and Spain to support tourism economically and build the foundations for recovery.”

While April was expected to be one of the busiest times of the year due to the Easter holidays, the near-universal introduction of travel restrictions led to a fall of 97% in international tourist arrivals. This follows a 55% decline in March. Between January and April 2020, international tourist arrivals declined by 44%, translating into a loss of about US$195 billion in international tourism receipts.

Asia and the Pacific hit hardest

At the regional level, Asia and the Pacific was the first to be hit by the pandemic and the worst hit between January and April, with arrivals down 51% in that period. Europe recorded the second-largest fall, with a 44% drop for the same period, followed by the Middle East (-40%), the Americas (-36%) and Africa (-35%).

In early May, UNWTO set out three possible scenarios for the tourism sector in 2020. These point to potential declines in overall international tourist numbers of 58% to 78%, depending on when travel restrictions are lifted. Since mid-May, UNWTO has identified an increase in the number of destinations announcing measures to restart tourism. These include the introduction of enhanced safety and hygiene measures and policies designed to promote domestic tourism.

 

Related Links

• Download the news release
• As Tourism Restarts, UNWTO Notes “Strong and Rapid” Governments’ Response to COVID-Challenge
• International Tourism Data Dashboard
• UNWTO: COVID-19 – Measures to Support Tourism
• UNWTO: Tourism and COVID-19

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International Tourist Numbers Could Fall 60-80% in 2020, UNWTO Reports

• All Regions
• 7 May 2020

• International tourism down 22% in Q1 and could decline by 60-80% over the whole year
• 67 million fewer international tourists up to March translates into US$80 billion in lost exports
• UNWTO has outlined three possible future scenarios depending on how the crisis unfolds

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22% fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020, the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows. According to the United Nations specialized agency, the crisis could lead to an annual decline of between 60% and 80% when compared with 2019 figures. This places millions of livelihoods at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy.

Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy

Available data reported by destinations point to a 22% decline in arrivals in the first three months of the year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57% following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts (exports from tourism).

Although Asia and the Pacific shows the highest impact in relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact in Europe, though lower in percentage, is quite high in volume (-22 million).

International tourist arrivals, 2019 and Q1 2020 (% change)

^{Source: UNWTO}

International Tourism 2020 Scenarios

Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate. Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders. The following scenarios for 2020 are based on three possible dates for the gradual opening up of international borders.

• Scenario 1 (-58%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July
• Scenario 2 (-70%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early September
• Scenario 3 (-78%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions only in early December.

International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)

* Actual data through March includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data.
Source: UNWTO
Note: The scenarios presented in this graph are not forecasts. They represent alternative monthly change in arrivals based on the gradual opening of national borders and lifting of travel restrictions on different dates, still subject to high uncertainty.

Under these scenarios, the impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:

• Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists
• Loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism
• 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk

This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began (1950). The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first.

Experts see recovery in 2021

Domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey. The majority expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel.

The estimates regarding the recovery of international travel is more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery still in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year.

When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover?

When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover?

Related Links

• Download the news release
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020 Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19 (full presentation)
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020 Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19 (summary presentation)
• Volume 18 • Issue 2 • May 2020
• Volume 18 • Issue 2 • Statistical annex, May 2020
• UNWTO Global Tourism Dashboard: Tourism and COVID-19
• 100% of Global Destinations Now Have COVID-19 Travel Restrictions
• UNWTO Launches a Call for Action for Tourism’s COVID-19 Mitigation and Recovery
• Tourism and COVID-19
• COVID-19 and Vulnerable Groups

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International tourism growth continues to outpace the global economy

• All Regions
• 20 Jan 2020

1.5 billion international tourist arrivals were recorded in 2019, globally. A 4% increase on the previous year which is also forecast for 2020, confirming tourism as a leading and resilient economic sector, especially in view of current uncertainties. By the same token, this calls for such growth to be managed responsibly so as to best seize the opportunities tourism can generate for communities around the world.

According to the first comprehensive report on global tourism numbers and trends of the new decade, the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, this represents the tenth consecutive year of growth.

All regions saw a rise in international arrivals in 2019. However, uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the collapse of Thomas Cook, geopolitical and social tensions and the global economic slowdown all contributed to a slower growth in 2019, when compared to the exceptional rates of 2017 and 2018. This slowdown affected mainly advanced economies and particularly Europe and Asia and the Pacific.

Looking ahead, growth of 3% to 4% is predicted for 2020, an outlook reflected in the latest UNWTO Confidence Index which shows a cautious optimism: 47% of participants believe tourism will perform better and 43% at the same level of 2019. Major sporting events, including the Tokyo Olympics, and cultural events such as Expo 2020 Dubai are expected to have a positive impact on the sector.

Responsible growth

Presenting the results, UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili stressed that “in these times of uncertainty and volatility, tourism remains a reliable economic sector”. Against the backdrop of recently downgraded global economic perspectives, international trade tensions, social unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, “our sector keeps outpacing the world economy and calling upon us to not only grow but to grow better”, he added.

Given tourism’s position as a top export sector and creator of employment, UNWTO advocates the need for responsible growth. Tourism has, therefore, a place at the heart of global development policies, and the opportunity to gain further political recognition and make a real impact as the Decade of Action gets underway, leaving just ten years to fulfill the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The Middle East leads

The Middle East has emerged as the fastest-growing region for international tourism arrivals in 2019, growing at almost double the global average (+8%). Growth in Asia and the Pacific slowed down but still showed above-average growth, with international arrivals up 5%.

Europe where growth was also slower than in previous years (+4%) continues to lead in terms of international arrivals numbers, welcoming 743 million international tourists last year (51% of the global market). The Americas (+2%) showed a mixed picture as many island destinations in the Caribbean consolidated their recovery after the 2017 hurricanes while arrivals fell in South America due partly to ongoing social and political turmoil. Limited data available for Africa (+4%) points to continued strong results in North Africa (+9%) while arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa grew slower in 2019 (+1.5%).

Tourism spending still strong

Against a backdrop of global economic slowdown, tourism spending continued to grow, most notably among the world’s top ten spenders. France reported the strongest increase in international tourism expenditure among the world’s top ten outbound markets (+11%), while the United States (+6%) led growth in absolute terms, aided by a strong dollar.

However, some large emerging markets such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia reported declines in tourism spending. China, the world’s top source market saw outbound trips increase by 14% in the first half of 2019, though expenditure fell 4%.

Tourism delivering ‘much-needed opportunities’

“The number of destinations earning US$1 billion or more from international tourism has almost doubled since 1998,” adds Mr Pololikashvili. “The challenge we face is to make sure the benefits are shared as widely as possible and that nobody is left behind. In 2020, UNWTO celebrates the Year of Tourism and Rural Development, and we hope to see our sector lead positive change in rural communities, creating jobs and opportunities, driving economic growth and preserving culture.”

This latest evidence of the strength and resilience of the tourism sector comes as the UN celebrates its 75th anniversary. During 2020, through the UN75 initiative the UN is carrying out the largest, most inclusive conversation on the role of global cooperation in building a better future for all, with tourism to be high on the agenda.

Related Links

• Download Excerpt of World Tourism Barometer, January 2020 (PDF)
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Nº18 January 2020
• Tourism in the 2030 Agenda
• Presentation (PDF)
• Infographics

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Tourism’s Growth Across All Regions Strengthens Sector’s Potential To Contribute To Sustainable Development Agenda

• All Regions
• 12 Dec 2019

Madrid, Spain, 12 December 2019 – International tourist arrivals grew by a further 4% between January and September of 2019, the latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer indicates. Tourism’s growth continues to outpace global economic growth, bearing witness to its huge potential to deliver development opportunities across the world but also its sustainability challenges.

Destinations worldwide received 1.1 billion international tourist arrivals in the first nine months of 2019 (up 43 million compared to the same period of 2018), according to the latest World Tourism Barometer from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in line with its forecast of 3-4% growth for this year.

The global economic slowdown, rising trade, geopolitical tensions and prolonged uncertainty around Brexit weighed on international tourism, which experienced a more moderate pace of growth during the summer peak season in the Northern Hemisphere (July-September).

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “As world leaders meet at the UN Climate Summit in Madrid to find concrete solutions to the climate emergency, the release of this latest World Tourism Barometer shows the growing power of tourism, a sector with the potential to drive the sustainability agenda forward. As tourist numbers continue to rise, the opportunities tourism can bring also rise, as do our sector’s responsibilities to people and planet.”

Tourism now world’s third largest export category

Generating USD 1.7 trillion in revenues as of 2018, international tourism remains the third largest export category behind fuels (USD 2.4 trillion) and chemicals (USD 2.2 trillion). Within advanced economies, tourism’s remarkable performance after years of sustained growth has narrowed the gap with automotive product exports.

International tourism accounts for 29% of the world’s services exports and 7% of overall exports. In some regions these proportions exceed the world average, especially the Middle East and Africa where tourism represents over 50% of services exports and about 9% of exports overall.
This highlights the importance of mainstreaming tourism in national export policies to broaden revenue streams, reduce trade deficits and ensure sustainable development on the long run.

The world’s top ten earners saw mixed results in international tourism receipts through September 2019, with Australia (+9%), Japan (+8%) and Italy (+7%) posting the highest growth, while China, the United Kingdom and the United States recorded declines. Mediterranean destinations were among the strongest performers in terms of earnings, both in Europe and the Middle East and North Africa region.

Regional performance

Growth in arrivals during the first nine months of 2019 was led by the Middle East (+9%), followed by Asia and the Pacific and Africa (both +5%), Europe (+3%) and the Americas (+2%):

Europe’s pace of growth slowed down to 3% in January-September this year, from double that rate last year, reflecting slower demand during the peak summer season in the world’s most visited region. While destinations in Southern Mediterranean (+5%) and Central Eastern Europe (+4%) led results, the regional average was weighed down by Northern and Western Europe (both +1%).

Also slower than last year, although still above the global average, growth in Asia and the Pacific (+5%) was led by South Asia (+8%), followed by South-East (+6%) and North-East Asia (+5%), while Oceania showed a 2% increase.

Data so far available for Africa (+5%) confirms continued robust results in North Africa (+10%) after two years of double-digit figures, while arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa grew 1%.

The 2% increase in the Americas reflects a mixed regional picture. While many island destinations in the Caribbean (+8%) consolidate their recovery after the 2017 hurricanes, arrivals in South America were down 3% partly due to a decline in Argentinian outbound travel, which affected neighboring destinations. Both North America and Central America grew 2%.

Source Markets – mixed results among top spenders

The United States (+6%) led growth in international tourism expenditure in absolute terms, supported by a strong dollar. India and some European markets also performed strongly, though global growth was more uneven than a year earlier.

France (+10%) reported the strongest increase among the world’s top ten outbound markets, reflecting surging demand for international travel for the second consecutive year. Spain (+10%), Italy (+9%) and the Netherlands (+7%) also posted robust growth, followed by the United Kingdom (+3%) and Russia (+2%).

Some large emerging markets such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Argentina reported declines in tourism spending this period, reflecting recent and ongoing economic uncertainty.

China, the world’s top source market saw outbound trips increase by 14% in the first half of 2019, though expenditure fell 4% compared to the same period last year.

World Tourism Barometer Volume 17 November 2019

• Excerpt
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, November 2019

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PR No.: PR 19050

Total export earnings from international tourism grew by 4% in real terms in 2018. In addition to the USD 1.5 trillion in receipts that destinations earned, international tourism generated another USD 256 billion from international passenger transport taken by non-residents. This raised total tourism exports to USD 1.7 trillion, or USD 5 billion a day.

Released as the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) prepares to meet for its 23rd General Assembly in Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation, this yearly report provides a consolidated analysis of international tourism. 2018 was the ninth consecutive year of sustained growth and tourism now represents 7% of global exports, growing at a faster rate than merchandise exports for the last seven years.

“This latest edition of our Highlights demonstrates the strength and potential of the tourism sector,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili. “These results were driven by a favourable economic environment, a growing middle class in emerging economies, technological advances, new business models, increased air capacity, affordable travel costs and visa facilitation. UNWTO is committed to ensuring that this continued growth is managed in a responsible and sustainable way and tourism is rightly seen as a key driver of social and economic development, job creation and equality”, he added.

Other key findings from the UNWTO International Tourism Highlights 2019 report include:

• Asia and the Pacific and Africa led growth in arrivals with a 7% increase in 2018, while Asia and the Pacific and Europe enjoyed above-average growth in tourism earnings.

• Among the world’s top 10 destinations in arrivals and receipts, France continued to lead in international tourist arrivals, while the United States remained the largest tourism earner in 2018. Japan entered the top 10 earners ranking following seven years of double-digit growth in international tourism receipts.

• The top 10 tourism earners account for almost half of total tourism receipts, while the top 10 destinations in arrivals receive 40% of worldwide arrivals.

• China remained the world’s largest spender, with USD 277 billion spending on international tourism in 2018 or one-fifth of international tourism expenditure, followed by the United States.

• 4 out of 5 tourists visit a destination in their own region.

• 58% of all international tourists arrive to their destinations by air. The share of air travel has increased from 46% in 2000 to 58% in 2018.

• The share of leisure travel has grown from 50% in 2000 to 56% in 2018. Leisure travel is the main purpose of visit in all world regions except the Middle East, where visiting friends and relatives (VFR), or for health or religious purposes predominates.

• The share of world population requiring a traditional visa declined from 75% in 1980 to 53% in 2018.

Notes

- The International Tourism Highlights 2019 Edition provides an overview of international tourism results in 2018 and can be downloaded here.

- Factsheet

UNWTO Communications Department

Tel: (+34) 91 567 8100 / Fax: +34 91 567 8218 / [email protected]

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